The Human Advantage in an AI World
When I entered this industry in 2012 as a Finance Manager for Arrow Truck Sales, Chad Fine told me something I’ve thought a lot about ever since: you can tell the good ones because the good ones stay in—even when times get tough. That line has shaped how I built MC2 Finance 11 years ago and how I’ve approached every cycle since. This downturn has been longer and deeper than the usual ebbs and flows of our industry, and the operators, dealers, lenders, and brokers who are still at the table are the ones who matter. I’m one of them, and if you’re reading this, you probably are too.
I want to start with something I think most of us know but don’t always say out loud: our industry sees the economy before anyone else does. Freight moves before GDP reports. Orders shift before retail sales print. When something is about to turn, trucking feels it first—and right now, we’re feeling a lot.
Three forces are converging on our buyers.
Fuel: Military action overseas continues to put upward pressure on diesel prices, squeezing margins for the fleets and owner-operators who make up our market. Every cent at the pump shows up somewhere—usually in the deal pipeline.
Drivers: The qualified driver pool is tightening. New FMCSA compliance requirements, including English language proficiency enforcement, combined with broader shifts in workforce availability, are making it harder for carriers to staff their trucks. Some are parking equipment because they can’t fill the seats. Others are pausing fleet expansion until they see where capacity settles.
The ripple: Put those two together, and you get what many of us are seeing on the sales and financing side: buyer hesitation, deals that take longer to close, and a more deliberate customer on the other side of the desk. Demand doesn’t disappear in a cycle like this—it gets pickier, and so do we.
On the credit side, we’re looking harder at the full picture than ever. A FICO score has never told the whole story, and it tells even less of it right now. Tradeline depth, comparable credit, bank balances, down payment, license type and tenure, whether it’s a first truck, who’s actually behind the wheel, time in business, route profile, state of operation, time at address, and home ownership—each piece matters because together they tell us whether an operator can ride out a soft quarter.
Here’s why I’m actually optimistic. The same regulatory enforcement that’s pulling non-English-speaking drivers out of the seat is going to tighten capacity—and tighter capacity means freight rates go up. Higher rates bring new drivers into the industry, and those drivers will be earning more than the ones they’re replacing. That’s the correction we’ve been waiting for.
We are due for a change any moment, and when it comes, we’ll be back to our normal ebbs and flows. It’s worth remembering that COVID threw a curveball at that normal cycle with inventory shortages, artificial demand, and the flood of equipment that followed. We’ve been working through the aftermath ever since.
What’s ahead looks a lot more like the industry we knew before all of that.
That’s the part I want to land on. When the market gets deliberate, the dealers, lenders, and brokers who know each other, who pick up the phone for each other, are the ones who keep deals moving. The good ones stay in. That’s the value UTA has always offered, and it’s the reason our events matter more in uncertain times, not less.
Register now for the Kansas City Golf Outing, June 3 and 4 at the Argosy Casino Hotel and Staley Farms Golf Course. The Thursday scramble is limited to 144 players on a first-come, first-served basis, and spots fill quickly. Whether you’re a scratch golfer or haven’t swung a club since the last UTA event, it’s one of the best networking days of the year, and all proceeds benefit the UTA Jerome Nerman Family Foundation Scholarships.
One important note: the Wednesday night reception will be held from 4:00 to 7:00 p.m. this year, earlier than last year, so please plan your travel accordingly. You won’t want to miss it.
Looking forward to seeing you in Kansas City.
Katie Baker,
President at MC2 Finance
UTA Board Member
Marketing, Membership, and Convention Committees
